18–22 Aug 2026 14–18 Sep 2026 16–20 Nov 2026 5 Days 5-Star Hotel
About This Course
Course Overview
While many wildcat wells result in dry holes, those that succeed can transform corporate trajectories and redefine industry dynamics. Hydrocarbon exploration is inherently high-risk and capital-intensive, with significant uncertainties ranging from geological variability to fluctuating market conditions. The difference between value creation and value destruction lies not in how much risk you take — but in how well you understand it.
This five-day advanced course provides participants with the decision-analysis frameworks and economic valuation techniques needed to effectively evaluate exploration opportunities and make informed investment decisions. The programme integrates probability modelling, subsurface volume uncertainty, risk-adjusted financial assessment and Monte Carlo simulation — all applied through real-world case studies covering successful and failed exploration projects.
Led by Dr. Babak Jafarizadeh, a specialist in petroleum economics and decision analysis, the course combines hands-on exercises using financial and statistical models with expert-led discussions on policy impacts, carbon pricing and strategic positioning in the evolving energy landscape.
Programme Content
Key Topics
01
Day 1 — Drilling for Success
The petroleum exploration value chain: prospect to field development
Strategic commercial considerations in exploration projects
Global energy trends shaping petroleum investments
Environmental considerations and carbon pricing in petroleum investments
Case Study: Exploration decisions under carbon pricing regulations
Optimising sequential exploration in multi-prospect plays
Does fortune favour the bold, or is systematic risk analysis the key?
Learning Outcomes
What You Will Learn
By the end of this course, you will be able to:
01Define economic value in hydrocarbon exploration and its role in investment decision-making
02Apply decision-analysis frameworks including decision trees, scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to exploration opportunities
03Analyse probabilistic resource assessments and reserve-based valuation models to optimise exploration strategies
04Evaluate investment risks using Monte Carlo simulation and uncertainty quantification methodologies
05Apply Bayesian probability techniques to update exploration success probabilities and assess the Value of Information
06Develop risk mitigation strategies and formulate strategic recommendations for value creation from exploration portfolios
Dates & Pricing
Sessions & Fees
Available as virtual sessions (MS Teams / Zoom) and classroom at five-star hotel venues. Contact us for scheduled and in-house dates.
Format
Location
Duration
Fee
Classroom
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil · 18–22 Aug 2026
5 Days
£3,900 per delegate
Classroom
London, UK · 14–18 Sep 2026
5 Days
£3,900 per delegate
Classroom
Singapore, Singapore · 16–20 Nov 2026
5 Days
£3,900 per delegate
In-House
Your premises or any location worldwide
Flexible
Contact us for pricing
Target Audience
Who Should Attend
This advanced programme is ideal for professionals involved in exploration decision-making, investment analysis and upstream portfolio management.
Geoscientists & Explorationists
Petroleum geologists and geoscientists evaluating exploration prospects
Petroleum Engineers
Engineers seeking to build exploration valuation and decision analysis skills
Energy Analysts & Economists
Financial specialists and energy economists in upstream investment teams
Business Development
Strategy, BD and investment professionals evaluating exploration assets
Risk Management Experts
Professionals responsible for investment risk and uncertainty management
Market Analysts & Forecasters
Analysts assessing exploration market conditions and price scenarios
Common Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the course instructor? +
The course is led by Dr. Babak Jafarizadeh, a specialist in petroleum economics and decision analysis with extensive experience working with international oil companies and academic institutions. He brings a blend of rigorous quantitative methodology and practical industry application to every session.
What decision-analysis tools does the course cover? +
The course covers decision trees, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian probability updating, Value of Information (VOI) analysis, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) — all applied in the context of real exploration investment decisions.
What is the course fee? +
The course fee is £3,900 per delegate. UK-based sessions are subject to 20% VAT. Contact us for in-house group pricing.
Does the course use software tools? +
Yes. The course includes hands-on exercises using financial and statistical software for Monte Carlo simulation and uncertainty quantification. No prior programming knowledge is required.
When are sessions scheduled? +
Sessions are scheduled on request — both virtual and classroom. Contact info@londonpetroacademy.co.uk to enquire about upcoming dates or to arrange a dedicated session for your team.
Can this course be delivered in-house? +
Yes. This course is particularly well-suited to in-house delivery for exploration teams. All content can be customised to your company's specific asset portfolio and decision context. Contact j.rogus@londonpetroacademy.co.uk for a tailored proposal.
