Houston · London · KL Dates TBC 2026 5 Days 5-Star Hotel
About This Course
Course Overview
The energy economy is transforming faster than any industry in history. Success depends not on chance, but on informed, strategic decisions. This advanced 5-day course provides the tools to think clearly about the energy business using data, economic reasoning and decision analysis — turning global challenges into sustainable opportunities for growth, resilience and innovation.
Participants master probabilistic modelling, real options valuation and Bayesian reasoning — tools essential for evaluating complex upstream projects under uncertainty. The curriculum integrates financial theory, policy economics and scenario-based planning. The course uses Lumivero's DecisionSuit Tools (@Risk and PrecisionTree), though delegates do not need prior access as alternatives are discussed throughout.
Delivered by Dr. Babak Jafarizadeh — former Senior Economic Analyst at Equinor, Assistant Professor at Heriot-Watt University and Lecturer at UC Berkeley. Sessions are held in Houston, London and Kuala Lumpur in 2026.
Programme Content
Key Topics
01
Strategic Decision Architecture
Global energy landscape and geopolitical risk factors
Decision quality and framing in high-capital energy projects
Influence diagrams and decision trees for complex decisions
Market-based approach to investment decision-making
Reserve classification: deterministic vs probabilistic approaches
Building probabilistic reserve models using P10/P50/P90 distributions
Bayesian updating for reserve estimates with new seismic or drilling data
Monte Carlo simulation for volumetric uncertainty
Case study: probabilistic valuation of a deepwater prospect with limited data
03
Uncertainty Analysis & Quantitative Methods
Advanced NPV, IRR and payback period analysis
Sensitivity analysis in upstream project economics
Monte Carlo fundamentals: distributions, iterations, convergence
Modelling price, cost and schedule uncertainty
Correlation structures and joint probability modelling
Using @Risk and PrecisionTree for integrated project simulation
Case study: full-cycle economic model of Enceladus field
04
Strategic Planning & Real Options Valuation
Economic impact of energy transition policies on project value
Real options theory: defer, expand, abandon, switch
Valuation techniques: binomial trees, Black-Scholes, decision trees
Strategic value of flexibility under volatile price and policy regimes
Linking real options to corporate portfolio strategy
Case: valuing the option to delay development amid carbon pricing uncertainty
05
Practical Applications & Capstone Presentation
Commodity price modelling: mean reversion, GBM, jump diffusion
Building stochastic price scenarios for long-term planning
Scenario planning: policy, technology and market disruptions
Carbon markets, ESG considerations and sustainable energy investments
Future trends in petroleum economics and energy finance
Capstone: presenting a probabilistic investment recommendation for Enceladus field
Learning Outcomes
What You Will Learn
By the end of this masterclass, you will be able to:
01Apply probabilistic valuation techniques and Monte Carlo simulation to upstream oil and gas assets under uncertainty
02Use Bayesian updating to build and refine probabilistic reserve models using P10/P50/P90 distributions
03Evaluate real options embedded in petroleum investment decisions using binomial trees, Black-Scholes and decision trees
04Model probabilistic commodity price scenarios using stochastic processes including mean reversion, GBM and jump diffusion
05Integrate fiscal regimes, ESG constraints and policy uncertainty into investment appraisals
06Build and present a complete probabilistic investment recommendation using @Risk and PrecisionTree (DecisionSuit)
Dates & Pricing
Sessions & Fees
All sessions are held at five-star hotel venues. Classroom only — no virtual option.
Dates
Location
Format
Fee
28 Sep - 2 Oct 2026
London, UK
Classroom
£3,900 (+20% UK VAT)
19-23 Oct 2026
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Classroom
£3,900 (no VAT)
2-6 Nov 2026
Houston, USA
Classroom
£3,900 (no VAT)
Target Audience
Who Should Attend
This masterclass is designed for finance, engineering and strategy professionals evaluating upstream petroleum investments under uncertainty.
Finance & Economics Professionals
Specialists evaluating upstream petroleum investments under uncertainty
Petroleum Engineers
Engineers seeking advanced economic and decision-analysis tools for project evaluation
Project Managers
Managers requiring probabilistic frameworks for complex capital investment decisions
Senior Executives
Decision-makers in NOCs and IOCs managing high-capital upstream portfolios
Analysts & Consultants
Professionals providing advanced economic modelling and advisory in oil and gas
Risk & Strategy Teams
Teams responsible for uncertainty quantification and investment strategy in energy
Common Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Who delivers this course? +
Dr. Babak Jafarizadeh — a senior consultant and engineering economist with a PhD in Petroleum Engineering from the University of Stavanger, academic appointments at Heriot-Watt University and UC Berkeley, and former Senior Economic Analyst at Equinor (Statoil). Author of Economic Decision Analysis for Project Feasibility Studies.
What software is used? +
The course uses Lumivero's DecisionSuit Tools (formerly Palisade DecisionSuit), including @Risk and PrecisionTree. Delegates do not need prior access as alternative solutions are discussed during the course.
Where are the 2026 sessions? +
3 locations: Houston USA, London UK and Kuala Lumpur Malaysia. London: 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2026. Kuala Lumpur: 19–23 Oct 2026. Houston: 2–6 Nov 2026.
What is the course fee? +
£3,900 per delegate. The London session is subject to 20% UK VAT. No VAT on Houston and Kuala Lumpur sessions.
Can this be delivered in-house? +
Yes. Contact j.rogus@londonpetroacademy.co.uk for a tailored in-house proposal.
All London Petro Academy courses are available as fully customised in-house programmes delivered at your premises — Houston, London, Kuala Lumpur or any location worldwide.
